2026 global economic update and mid-year outlook
Released on 4 June 2026
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All 10 major economies saw real GDP growth downgrades and upward revisions to inflation for the year in our latest forecasts. Global expansion drops below 3% in 2026, while inflation rises above 4%—tightening demand and squeezing profitability.
The Strait of Hormuz blockage is the defining shock of 2026. Disruption to this critical maritime corridor exposed the fragility of energy supply, pushing input costs higher and feeding through to transport, manufacturing and consumer prices. Margins are narrowing, and investment is coming under pressure.
Leaders need to reassess exposure and test resilience across potential outcomes.
In this report, you get updated GDP growth projections, inflation forecasts, scenarios and regional outlooks to help you prepare for shifts. Use these insights to inform strategic decisions and resource allocation.
How H2 is shaping up:
- Energy shock fallout: Rising costs ripple through supply chains and demand
- Growth slows, inflation rises: Margin pressure intensifies
- Across-the-board revisions: Weaker growth and higher inflation reset expectations
- Exposure gaps: Which markets are at risk versus more resilient
- Alternative scenarios: How conditions could unfold from here
What you’ll find inside:
- New Iran war scenarios that simulate potential outcomes
- Revised GDP growth projections across 11 economies
- Updated inflation forecasts across 11 economies
- Regional outlooks and risk analysis for the US, Eurozone, UK, China and ASEAN
Meet the Euromonitor experts
Aiste Bijune
Global Insight Manager – Economies
David Zhang
Asia Pacific Insight Mananger – Services
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